“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra
The future of North American campuses’ energy infrastructure has been defined whether your institution is currently preparing or not. Holistic campus electrification will be a reality by 2050, aimed at replacing fossil fuel-based heating, cooking, and energy production. Depending on your geographic location and political status quo, your state/province/city, or county may eliminate local power generation and heating based on fossil fuels by mandating net-zero emission codes and renewable energy. Both the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) and ASHRAE 90.1 energy standard have Net Zero Emission (NZE) aggressive goals via publication revision updates by 2032. Prior to 2020, the local and state code adoption cycle typically lagged 8 to 12 or more years following a revision posting. However, the proliferation of politically and financially incentivized climate change actions has accelerated the code adoption cycle to less than three years for a growing majority of U.S. and Canadian jurisdictions. And the cycle may eventually be less than one year for U.S. federally funded facilities, grants (such as Pell Grants), or other funding allocations via an NZE requirement.
Obviously, public universities, colleges, and K–12 institutions will be impacted. Thus, institutional and facilities leadership should begin NZE preparation today to mitigate the liability of diminished or suspended federal funds that may or may not be required of NZE facilities and campuses, as well as electrified transportation and other internal combustion engine equipment (mowers, turf equipment, agricultural research equipment, etc.). Also keep in mind that the current electric infrastructure is grossly inadequate to support NZE campuses via electrification, especially if NZE code adoption is accelerated.
The NZE campus
Wholesale upgrades of existing electrical infrastructure and replacement of fossil fuel infrastructure must be part of an institution’s multi-year strategic master plan toward an NZE campus. Even if your campus is able to replace or upgrade all of its infrastructure, the likelihood of your utility supplier providing adequate transportation infrastructure and production to meet the needs of your electrified (and, by proxy, NZE) campus is moderate at best. Utility industry and DOE forecasts regarding decarbonization actions vary from region to region, but all prognostications agree that the rate of NZE demand will far outpace (if it hasn’t already) the ability of producers and utility transmission to keep up.
The NZE supply and demand differential is the bad news, and it will warrant campus planning and funding to enact a diverse approach to achieve NZE mandates. The good news is that current and emerging technologies can assist strategic planning and provide attractive returns on investment now and in the near future, before market demand creates scarcity and negatively impact such returns.
The most current available and attractive decarbonization technology is machine learning-based energy optimization software. Several commercially available products can be layered over existing campus automation controls (BAS/BMS/EMS systems) as energy optimization engines. The primary function of BAS systems is control of facility HVAC and lighting systems and centralized energy plants. Typically, these systems account for 40 to 50% of a campus’s energy use and carbon emissions. Machine learning and pre-AI supervisory software can reduce total campus energy use as much as (or exceeding) 30%. Reducing the end use not only cuts carbon emissions in the immediate term but also reduces overall campus demand at the point of utility provider connection. This frees up capacity for campus electrification strategies.
Onsite renewable energy, such as solar photovoltaics, is also an attractive and commercially available NZE strategy. However, a principal challenge of solar and wind is the availability of area (real estate) for renewable energy allocation. Solar requires four to 11 acres of area (land, parking lots, rooftops) to produce approximately one megawatt of usable production, not including energy storage. If a campus has available area, solar is currently an economically attractive strategy due to federal, state, and local grants, as well as other potential financial and utility incentives.
In addition, an emerging technology that will improve solar economic viability is long-duration energy storage (LDES), specifically “flow battery” technology. LDES should mature with commercialized viability in 2025, providing renewable energy efficacy and functionality during “off” production times. LDES will also provide an alternative to carbon-based fuel emergency power generation.
NZE emerging technologies
Other NZE emerging and available technologies includes micro-combined heat and power (mCHP), micro-nuclear plants, heat-pump chillers, heat-pump packaged air handlers, green-methane fuel, hydrogen-methane blend fuels, hydrogen blend fuels, biomass, biofuels, continuous air purification to replace ventilation air, and direct current (DC) native facility infrastructure. These and others will provide replacement and offsets to carbon-based energy emissions.
The bottom line? Facilities and senior campus leadership should begin master planning to deploy NZE strategies ahead of the coming mandates. A strategic plan implementing the emerging technologies will reduce, minimize, or potentially eliminate your capital investments in electrical infrastructure to meet the demands of your electrified NZE campus.
David Handwork, PE, CEFP, is chief engineer at United Commercial Energy Partners in Frisco, Texas. He can be reached at [email protected].
Power Tools
Seeks to engage multiple voices from among FM ranks to bring fresh insight and real knowledge from the trenches on what’s working in planning and implementation for energy-related projects and innovations. To contribute, contact Kevin Willmann, FM Column Editor.
See all Power Tools.
